Show notes

EP 155 Show Notes

In this episode Craig and Kevin walk through some research from the Texas A&M University Texas Real Estate Research Center that gives us some insight into what might happen in the real estate market in the coming years. While it’s difficult to know for sure what will happen, this list will give us a metric to look back on in the future. What are your predictions?

Transcript

470 segments
KEVIN

This is episode number 155 of The Homeowner Show. Whether you DIY or looking to hire, we're here to help you find the best information and options for you and your home. My name is Kevin Hackett, and here with me is Meg Williams.

CRAIG

Hello, hello, hello, and welcome to The Homeowner Show. We're glad that you could join us for another live episode of The Homeowner Show. Welcome to the Homeowner Show Studios. How you doing, Kev?

KEVIN

I'm doing fine.

CRAIG

Doing fine? Yep, just fine.

KEVIN

Just fine.

CRAIG

Can we raise it up a notch or two?

KEVIN

I mean, it's been a long day. Yeah. Yep. I love it. Took it out. Took it out. It snuck up on me a little bit too late, but I took care of it.

CRAIG

That's okay.

KEVIN

No, I'm good. Just a little bit tired. And been recently doing some landscaping.

CRAIG

Some landscaping?

KEVIN

Yeah. You know, well, I was home for a bit. Had some infectious diseases around my house.

CRAIG

Otherwise known as children.

KEVIN

Yeah, that's true. For a couple of weeks. And so couldn't really go anywhere for a little while. So I was fine. But I decided to take the opportunity since I've been gone so much this summer to kind of weed some beds in my yard. But we're still dealing with the freeze.

CRAIG

What do you mean you're still dealing with the freeze?

KEVIN

Well, because we got some big bush things that died during the freeze.

CRAIG

So you're having to dig them out now?

KEVIN

Yeah, I gotta do something with it.

CRAIG

Well, this is your fault at this point. I mean, Like how many months ago was that now?

KEVIN

Well, yeah, but see, here's the thing. There are people like your mother and other people who are like, just give it some time.

CRAIG

Maybe it'll come back.

KEVIN

See what happens. Yeah, maybe it'll come back. Well, this stuff is not coming back. And honestly, it's for the best. I don't know what it is. Someone told me the name of it and I hate this stuff so much that I was like—

CRAIG

You were kind of glad it was gone.

KEVIN

I'm so glad it's gone. But it's one of those things that like, now I got to figure out what to do. First of all, I got these— there's, there's massive stumps here because it's, it's a some sort of a bush thing. Yeah, but the stump is huge. And so I was like, look, I got a big truck, I'll just yank those things out.

CRAIG

Oh no, so that never goes well.

KEVIN

Well, I— it— first of all, let me just say the— let me start with the end. The end is they're still in the exact same position that they were whenever I started. That's the end.

CRAIG

How's your truck?

KEVIN

No, okay, so that's, that's the next best question. Um, actually, my truck's fine. Um, the, the strap that I was using to, uh—

CRAIG

Didn't make it?

KEVIN

No, it, it had It had seen better days. Um, had to throw it away, but it literally— it— I mean, my truck has got some beef to it.

CRAIG

Sure.

KEVIN

And it, it didn't even budge. I mean, didn't even budge. So I, so I asked my, uh— so there's a, there's a guy that comes and does lawn work of like 2 or 3 houses around mine. When I saw him the other day and I was like, hey, What would you charge me to take those stumps out? Because I started, like, I started using like a pickaxe and, you know, a shovel and trying to figure out, okay, what do I got to do to get this thing out of here? And after about 30 minutes of work, I was done because I got nowhere. And so, uh, he said, he said, there's 3 of them, $20 apiece, $60. I was like, When can you do

KEVIN

this?

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

$60 is worth every bit of that, if not more. So anyway, still dealing with the freeze, and I've got these stumps that he still hadn't come and gotten. But they like separate my house from the next door neighbor's house too. And so I'm like, we're talking to them the other day, it's like, well, we could like take this bed back and just make it grass. And they're like, whatever you want to do, we like you. So anyway, that's what's been going on in my life. Lawnscaping.

CRAIG

So has he come and done it yet?

KEVIN

No, he hasn't done it yet.

CRAIG

Okay.

KEVIN

But he, he told me it might be a couple of weeks, and this was like a week ago, so I'm still waiting on it to happen. But I, I know that it's gonna— it's gotta happen at some point. I mean, they're dead. Um, but I mean, some of this stuff has big massive root structures, and I don't know, Because it's been there since like 1972. It's, I hate it too. Absolutely hate it. I hate it when it's alive and I might hate it more when it's dead. Because I can't get it out. Now I gotta pay someone. It's worth it.

CRAIG

Can you, well, I'm not gonna, you know, I don't think you should do anything unethical or environmentally unsound.

KEVIN

Well, I mean, I did think like there are ways to like help it rot quicker.

CRAIG

Right? Yes.

KEVIN

But I, you know, none of them which we recommend on this show. No. Well, because what might happen is a Tool Time episode of, you know, something blowing up.

CRAIG

Sure.

KEVIN

And we don't want to do that because Tim the Toolman Taylor would probably—

CRAIG

we'd get a fun story out of it.

KEVIN

It would be. And I don't really want to pay for the aftermath, so I'd rather pay the $60 for this guy to come do it. And now just gotta wait for him to do it.

CRAIG

$60 is cheap.

KEVIN

Oh, when he said $60, I was like, oh man, like, when? Do it now. Yeah, because it's easy.

CRAIG

So Chris Turner just jumped on. I'm sure he's pulled a stump or two.

KEVIN

I'm sure he has. Yeah, but yeah, he's, he's a lot bigger and stronger than me.

CRAIG

So thanks for joining us, Chris. Yeah, so like, you, you tried it with a toe strap. Why not with— do you not have a chain?

KEVIN

Uh, no.

CRAIG

No.

KEVIN

I don't.

CRAIG

You need to invest in that, man.

KEVIN

I know. But here's the problem with that. I think that I was concerned that if I used a chain and said chain broke, it's bye-bye rear glass.

CRAIG

Could be.

KEVIN

I'm just thinking, what is the whiplash of that thing pulling? I, I don't know. So I, I'm just— I don't know if I'm brave enough to do it that way.

CRAIG

I've rarely met a stump that can withstand a good chain. Yeah, if you bought a cheap chain, for sure, like, it'll bust out your back, but you got to spend some good money to get a good chain.

KEVIN

And I'm going to $60, man. I can't buy a good chain for $60. I haven't priced a chain in a while. I mean, I, I went to, to, uh, Lowe's and I was looking at some of their big chains and, you know, you double it up, you know, But you got to buy enough and you want plenty of it.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

It was gonna, it was probably gonna cost me well over $100 to get a good check.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

Yeah. And I was like, it might be worth it, but I'm, no.

CRAIG

Well, and you know, that's actually something I think a lot of people don't realize is when you hire somebody to, to work on your home, you know, I don't, I don't think most people realize that a lot of the equipment that they're using, they have spent more money on that equipment than what they're probably charging you to do that job.

KEVIN

Yeah. Oh, I, I would completely agree. And so, you know, that, that's one of the things you have to take into account. You got to take into account, okay, they're using— I mean, you're, you're, you're not having to do the work, and they're using equipment that they've got to pay for.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

And they got to do maintenance on, and, you know, they're liable if they throw their back out type of thing. You know, that, that is assuming you did get a reputable company to come do the job.

CRAIG

For sure.

KEVIN

That they've licensed and bonded.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

Like they should be. Yeah.

CRAIG

So speaking of reputable companies, uh, Southern Lux just, just joined in. They said, yo-yo, guys. Yo-yo right back at you, Southern Lux.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

So Southern Lux is, uh, with Chris Turner over there. So like, uh, if you guys are looking for some home improvement guys, maybe build you a good barndominium, those are the guys to reach out to. Have you seen some of the stuff they're doing?

KEVIN

No. Dude, it's awesome. I mean, I know he does good work, so, but I've not seen any of it. They need to send us some pictures and we'll put them up for them.

CRAIG

Well, I think Chris was like back on like episode like 20 or something like that. Yeah, it's been a while. It's been a minute.

KEVIN

It's been a minute. Yeah, there's no doubt.

CRAIG

So go back and find that one. He's a good guy.

KEVIN

Yeah, absolutely.

CRAIG

So what are we talking about today, Kev?

KEVIN

All right, man. So, uh, we're going highbrow. Well, we're, we're trying to figure out some things. I mean, one of the things that we can't do very well is predict what's gonna happen in the future, right? In fact, I would say it's probably one of the greatest human flaws is we can't predict the future.

CRAIG

Okay.

KEVIN

If we could, a lot of things would be different, right? But we can't. So, uh, people do, however, you know, put out their best predictions about things, and who knows what's going to happen. We don't really know. But one of the things that has been crazy over the last year, year and a half, is just real estate. The market for real estate's been crazy. And so, um, we were sitting around going, okay, what, what do we think is going to happen? So we started doing some research.

CRAIG

Chris just said that he was on the anniversary episode, which means it was either episode 52 or 104. So it had to have been '52.

KEVIN

Uh, yeah, he was early, so it would have been '52, right?

CRAIG

Sure. Tell us if it was the 1-year or the 2-year, Chris. So we want to get— we want to get this straight. We'll link it up in the show notes.

KEVIN

Yeah, well, speaking of, we're coming up on year 3.

CRAIG

Year 3?

KEVIN

Year 3 is coming up next month, which is just a few weeks away. So it's kind of cool.

CRAIG

Um, sorry, you were, you were saying eloquent things.

KEVIN

Waxing eloquent.

CRAIG

That's right.

KEVIN

Um, so, uh, you found this really great article from, uh, the Texas Real Estate Research Center, which is from Texas A&M University. And they have given just a recent press release. What was that? Like a week and a half ago about their predictions for what's going to happen with the real estate market in '21 and '22. And so we were just going to kind of spend some time talking through that.

CRAIG

Yeah. And it's important to note that we didn't even know this existed until recently.

KEVIN

No, no. But like the research and the resource that this is, you guys are going to be hearing more from them, from us, from them.

CRAIG

So like, if you're listening to the show right now, and you're not from Texas, hang in there. Here's why. One, based off the research that we've done, this is the largest real estate research center in the country.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

And possibly the world. I don't need to go back and check on that. There could be some other ones, but it's definitely the biggest one in the United States.

KEVIN

That's crazy.

CRAIG

Number 2, Texas real estate is upstream from all the other real estate markets right now.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

So if you can pay attention to what's happening in Texas, it's probably what's going to be happening in '23 and '24.

KEVIN

In other places.

CRAIG

Right.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Yes.

KEVIN

So I mean, it's a really, it's a really great article. Um, and, and some of this stuff you might go, okay, that kind of makes sense. But, um, they're putting not just their thoughts behind it, right?

CRAIG

Right. They're—

KEVIN

I mean, one of the things we know about Texas A&M, uh, is that they, they do research the crap out of stuff.

CRAIG

Yes. So when I mean, like, it's, it's— if you've never— a lot of people might think if you've never been to A&M, you know, like if you go to— and again, I've never been to like Texas Tech and I've never been to TCU, but I've been to University of Texas, I've been to Baylor, I'm trying to think of some of the other universities in Texas. But anyway, Texas A&M, it like, you know, if you go to like UT Austin, it takes up like maybe 3 or 4 city blocks.

KEVIN

Yeah. Right?

CRAIG

Because it's in a Metroplex.

KEVIN

Yeah, I mean, it's downtown.

CRAIG

It's downtown Austin.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

You know, you go to Baylor, you know, it's a big university, but it doesn't take up much space. Texas A&M is like a sprawling city. of education. It is massive.

KEVIN

Yeah, I would say Texas Tech is pretty big as well. Is it?

CRAIG

I've never been there, so I don't know what it's like.

KEVIN

It is, but you're, again, you're dealing with a different type of market. I mean, Bryan-College Station is a little bit different type of market than Austin or Fort Worth or, well, I don't know, but I mean, Baylor's not in the biggest market, but either way, yeah, they do a ton of stuff there.

CRAIG

Right.

KEVIN

I mean, they're Aggies, but— Mm-hmm. Yeah.

CRAIG

I mean, I mean, everyone—

KEVIN

If you like that sort of thing.

CRAIG

What? Apparently there's 2 major universities right now that do.

KEVIN

There, there are.

CRAIG

And— Texas and OU are trying to like jump ship out of the Big 12.

KEVIN

Yep, yep.

CRAIG

Is that, is that like a confirmed thing? Is it done?

KEVIN

Oh yeah. That's so stupid. Yeah, it's definitely done. Well, there— we're gonna— you're gonna get me on a tangent that we probably don't want to be on. I will say this, I think that the NCAA would love there to be 4 super conferences, and SEC is, is currently already doing that, right? So who knows, we'll see what happens. But yeah, no, no, I mean, one of us in this room has graduated from that university, and, um, yeah, it wouldn't be me. Um, and although I have a ring— hey, check that out, I got one. No, it's a different university. Um, but anyway, uh, but yeah, they do a ton of research and, and like you said, this, this is not some small little, you know, small town company that's

KEVIN

decided to put some research stuff out. I mean, they got, they got some, some juice behind what they're doing. So we're going to kind of go through this and talk through it and, um, see what happens. Yeah.

CRAIG

So let's, let's, let's just start right at the top. So one of their first predictions right off the bat is that supply chain bottlenecks are going to continue. And so this has been a problem since, I mean, basically since COVID started, is there's been no supply whatsoever. And so like, and you can think about this from a lot of different perspectives and obviously the first one's going to be just like raw materials, wood.

KEVIN

Yep.

CRAIG

But like, if you go back to when COVID began, Do you remember what the first shortage was? Toilet paper.

KEVIN

Toilet paper, man.

CRAIG

And let me tell you something. If you want to shut down a job site quicker than anything.

KEVIN

Yeah, because the last thing you need is a lack of toilet paper.

CRAIG

A lack of toilet paper.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

And like, I'm not like, I'm joking, but at the same time, I'm not. Like, you can't, you can't have a job site without TP.

KEVIN

No.

CRAIG

And so like, if there's no TP, there's no job happening.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

And so like, again, it's all these things that are like downstream of what's actually happening. It's like, you could have all the building materials in the world, but if you don't have TP on the job site, you're only gonna get guys on the work site for like maybe 4 hours at most.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

'Cause stuff's gonna happen. Lunch will be eaten. Burritos will be consumed and then immediately returned.

KEVIN

Food trucks will arrive. And those food trucks equaled need of TP. Yeah, absolutely.

CRAIG

Triple ply.

KEVIN

Yeah, triple ply with the aloe. Yeah, it actually comes with your meal. That's right.

CRAIG

So, uh, but yeah, salsa TP.

KEVIN

That's right. So I, you know, you're right. I mean, definitely lumber, but we were even seeing supply with, with electrical things. And I mean, just, I mean, literally Anything that needs to get transported by a truck from point A to point B, uh, just to get to the supply houses, right? They were, they, they were having a hard time. I mean, you couldn't get people that were willing to drive. And so all of these companies that were just transport companies, the supply chains were going down. And because of that, um, it just is going to cause problems. with any type of renovation or, uh, home build, new home build, new construction, anything like that.

CRAIG

Yeah. So, well, and like, even thinking about, uh, our interview with, uh, Megan Anderson.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Talking about appliances.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

I mean, she was, she was talking about, I think there were some appliances she was saying they were like 6 months out.

KEVIN

Yeah. Freezer. Freezers are one of them. In fact, I just, uh, actually, uh, bought a freezer from them, um, It was like 2 weeks ago.

CRAIG

Did you really?

KEVIN

And, um, she said, yeah, we'll have to order it. We don't have any in stock, um, but we'll have to order it. She said, in fact, I thought she said it would be here today actually, but, um—

CRAIG

What's up, Megan? Where's the freezer?

KEVIN

Yeah, what's up? Bring it. I'm ready for that. I'm ready for the frozen stuff. Uh, but it, it, it was some of that, one of those things that like you can't, like, first of all, we weren't able to import for a while. other countries, and a lot of these, you know, appliances come from other countries. Then even once you were able to import, you couldn't get it to the supply store.

CRAIG

It's coming from overseas. You need to make sure that that freezer doesn't have COVID.

KEVIN

That's true.

CRAIG

Freezer needs a vaccine passport.

KEVIN

I don't know. Um, that's probably what they store the vaccines in, the freezers.

CRAIG

Yeah. Yeah.

KEVIN

So I don't know.

CRAIG

There's no way it could test negative.

KEVIN

Oh my goodness. So either way, we got this supply chain and they're, they're just basically saying, look, it's going to continue.

CRAIG

It's going to continue.

KEVIN

Now, now they're hoping some, some of the pressure comes off a little bit, but they're saying, look, it's still going to continue.

CRAIG

Right. All right. So moving on, this is, and this is one of the uglier ones, but like you had to expect this coming. Yeah. Is, and let's also repeat, these are their predictions based off their research.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

And I encourage everyone to go to their website, which is recenter.tamu.edu. Part of the reason you should go there is just to look at their staff.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

I mean, these guys are deep in, you know, professional guys who are, all they do is research. So, and these are their collective predictions for the next year, basically. So here it is. Mortgage rates are going to go higher.

KEVIN

Yeah. But okay. Let's, Back up for just a minute. The mortgage rates are really low.

CRAIG

Right.

KEVIN

Historic all-time lows, never seen them this low before. I mean, getting down in the low 2s, I mean, unbelievable. And what it does is it changes people's desire to buy. Yep. Right? But we got a problem. with people not wanting to sell because who knows if they can find something to buy. Right. And so, you know—

CRAIG

Where am I going to live?

KEVIN

Where am I going to live? And so something's got to give here somewhere, and we need a balance. The balance has to come. And I, you know, I don't know what that balance winds up looking like. Hopefully it's nothing like it was back in the '80s, um, you know, because back then, goodness, mortgage interest rates were 15% to 20%.

CRAIG

Oh yeah.

KEVIN

And, uh, you know, getting down to like a 4% or 5%, it seems reasonable, um, which is where a lot of people are if they didn't refinance during this time.

CRAIG

Well, and I'll, I'll find out a little bit more next week when I talk to Haley, but like, I would imagine what we're talking about is, is them making like a point jump, because if you go from 2% to 10%, It's not going to happen. It would, it would be a really frustrated and frantic market.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Uh, for numerous reasons. So I don't think it's going to jump that high.

KEVIN

I don't either.

CRAIG

I think all they're saying is like, look, we can't expect it to stay this low, which I don't necessarily agree with, um, because we have seen countries like Japan go to negative interest rates, right? Um, which is insane.

KEVIN

Yeah, but it works.

CRAIG

It doesn't work. It does work.

KEVIN

It's been there for a while. I'll put it there.

CRAIG

Oh, it's happened.

KEVIN

It's happened. It's not good.

CRAIG

It's not good. No.

KEVIN

But people buy things.

CRAIG

Well, sort of. I mean, it just depends on how you think about it. Because I mean, like, if what you're incentivizing people to do is to diminish their cash, their savings.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Because, you know, interest rates affect everything across the board. Because when you say negative interest rates, you're like, oh, you're going to pay me to buy a house, which like sounds great until you start trying to save money. And when you save money and put it in a bank, the same interest rate applies to your savings.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

So like, it's in your best interest to put the money out in the market.

KEVIN

Right.

CRAIG

But then you end up with an economy where no one has any cash on hand because they don't want to keep it.

KEVIN

Sure.

CRAIG

So it has its own problems.

KEVIN

Yeah, it's inherently bad. Yeah. Inherently bad. But it— so they're just saying, look, it's gonna go up. Now, it's not gonna be crazy. They're— in fact, they're just saying, look, they could be somewhat higher. They're not saying we expect these to go through the roof. No. Their word here is somewhat higher.

CRAIG

Yeah. And they're taking their cue What's the big—

KEVIN

the Federal Reserve.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

The Federal Reserve's policy. They're basically saying—

CRAIG

The Federal Reserve has said, look, they're going to go up.

KEVIN

Right. So it's coming. It's coming.

CRAIG

That's a pretty good prediction because the Federal Reserve said it's going to happen anyway.

KEVIN

Yep. All right.

CRAIG

So moving on down the line, housing demand continues strong. And this is just going— this is just part of the market right now.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

You know, and so they're not, they're not saying that it's not going to slow down, but it's going to continue strong because it's insane right now. Yeah, still insane.

KEVIN

Well, again, it's what I was saying earlier. You, you don't know, like, let's say that I decide to sell my house right now. I might get really good money for my house, but am I going to be able to turn around and buy something comparable or nicer which is what I would want to do if I was selling my house, right? Am I going to be able to find something? And so what it does is people are reluctant to sell their home. They want to buy, they're looking, they want to do something, but they don't want to get rid of what they got because who knows if I'm going to get what I want. And so

KEVIN

it's one of those deals where a lot of realtors are encouraging people, if you want to buy a home, you need to sell yours first. Yeah. Not just put a contingency offer because there ain't time for that. Right. I mean, you don't have time for a contingency offer. You need to have cash in hand. So you have to sell your house. What are you going to do? Are you going to go rent? Are you going to live in a tent? What are you going to do? So it's a weird, weird deal, but—

CRAIG

Which has created a demand for RVs.

KEVIN

It absolutely has. I mean, don't think that we haven't thought that if we decided to to sell our house, we could live in our RV. We absolutely could.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

And people are doing that more and more and more. So—

CRAIG

Because they're willing to wait. Yeah.

KEVIN

Because you, I mean, you can. And I mean, it's one of those deals where it's like, okay, everything fluctuates. Okay. So if you sell high, you're going to buy high. If you sell your house for $50,000 more than you could have a year ago, you're gonna pay $50,000 more for a house, right, that you've got to buy. The same is true, like, the opposite way, you know, if you sell low, you're gonna be able to buy low. So these things all kind of fluctuate, but what— it doesn't really matter if you wind up having low, you know, high demand on homes but low inventory, you're going to wind up in a tough spot. Yeah. So, yeah.

CRAIG

So, all right, moving on down the line. Next prediction is that housing demand continues strong. Oh, I just did that one. Sorry. Home inventory improves.

KEVIN

Yeah. So that's interesting because we were just talking about that. Yeah. Is that right now we're, we're having a shortage of inventory. What they're actually saying is here that they think that that's going to improve.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

Which I didn't expect. I mean, whenever you see that the housing demand continues to go up, again, I think what they're saying here is people are going to be more and more comfortable as the mortgage rates go up a little bit. The market's going to stabilize a little bit. Housing prices are probably going to come down a little bit. And so maybe people will be a little bit a little bit more willing to put their house up at this point.

CRAIG

Well, and I think part of the rest of that is there's a lot of plans out there for developed communities right now. And so as certain supply chain issues get resolved, they're going to be able to move forward on some of these projects and get more houses. And But Texas is just so weird right now in that there's a lot of people, there's an age gap that we're fixing to close, and there's a lot of people moving to Texas. And so, there's a lot of focus from builders to be in Texas building these homes because they recognize that there is a demand.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

And so, I think that's part of what they're pointing to is there's so much energy and attention being put on Texas right now. That, you know, the inventory has to improve.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Just because there's so many people working to improve the inventory.

KEVIN

Sure. And, and it's going, you know, with, with materials coming down in price a little bit, we're probably gonna see, um, some construction start to take off a little bit more. And like you said, some of these planned communities, we should have some more inventory available.

CRAIG

So yeah.

KEVIN

Sounds good to me.

CRAIG

All right, next one. Home construction growth slows in '22.

KEVIN

Okay, what does that mean?

CRAIG

All right, so let's see what we can glean from reading. It says, in '22, new home construction is projected to grow, but at a slower rate than the previous 2 years as the housing market stabilizes. The housing market will move toward a more sustainable long-run path as the pandemic housing market frenzy dissipates.

KEVIN

Yeah, so basically what they're saying here is that Um, I mean, it's, it's going to continue to grow, but just slower. I mean, it's, it's been kind of crazy. I mean, one of the things that, that I know you said was in your industry specifically, when with people staying at home more, they're like, hey, I got stuff that could be taken care of and I'm here. So people that need to come serve me, uh, these service industries, um, I can hang out here and We can get this stuff done. And so hopefully, some of that's going to dissipate a little bit. And with the price of these lumber and other things coming down, I mean, hopefully, it'll continue to grow.

CRAIG

Yeah. Well, and I think, so these next 2 in their list, I think all tie together. So it says demographics fuel Texas housing demand. The same thing I was just talking about, like the aging millennials. As you get older, you want to own property. You're in a more better financial position to own property, to finance property. And then also the migration from out-of-state people is going to continue to move in.

KEVIN

Yep.

CRAIG

And so that's what they're saying is that's what's going to fuel the continuation of the market that we have. But then like in '22, we're going to see it get more balanced.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

You know, as we sort of plateau between our development, our building, and our demand.

KEVIN

Yeah. So all of these things were— that's what's so interesting about this research to me is all of these things are working hand in glove together. They're really in conjunction with each other. When the mortgage rates go up, it actually is going to incentivize some prices of homes to come down. Yep. And whenever that happens, more people are going to be more willing to sell their home so they can get into something. So all of these things are going to be balanced out a little bit over time. And so they're just saying that in the next couple of years, um, some of this stuff is going to kind of just level out a little bit, right?

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

I mean, and then, and it really goes right into that very last one, right?

CRAIG

Yeah, the, uh, the foreclosures absorbed.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Yeah. So this is, this is an interesting prediction. And it says, uh, it says once forbearance ends in the fall of '21, even with an increase in delinquencies and foreclosures, the housing market could absorb the foreclosed homes. Researchers say it's possible homes could be sold with a gain even before they enter foreclosure.

KEVIN

So do you think we're talking about like people flipping homes here?

CRAIG

No, I think what they're talking about is people that know that they're going into foreclosure because we have because you have Biden extending, right, the, the forbearance program, which we, we talked about, what, 3 episodes ago, something like that? Yeah, and he ruined everything that we said by extending it.

KEVIN

I know.

CRAIG

Um, you know, which I, I think, man, like, the, the, the more you push this out, the worse it's gonna be when it comes to a close. I mean, just rip that Band-Aid off, man.

KEVIN

Make it happen.

CRAIG

Like, you can't, you can't. It seems like, well, maybe if I just do this my whole presidency. Come on, man.

KEVIN

He's gonna be the next person on Come On, Man on ESPN. Did you ever watch that?

CRAIG

No.

KEVIN

Oh my goodness. He's gonna be the next person. But just because stuff like this, like, at some point, something's gotta give, right?

CRAIG

Right.

KEVIN

mean, and they're just saying that at some point—

CRAIG

People are going to get wise to what's going on and they're like, look, I can unload this now and I can actually do it for a profit. I won't have a foreclosure on my record. So why not just— I mean, like, and people are willing to buy distressed properties at inflated prices. Yeah.

KEVIN

And the question that I've got for some of these people is, where are they going to go? I mean, I don't know. I mean, right now it's hard A lot of college students are going back to school, and they're finding that, I mean, just the— not just college students, we talked to some other friends of ours looking for an apartment. It's hard to find apartments right now.

CRAIG

Maybe that's what you do. You go back to school, and eventually you get your school debt forgiven. Just keep, just keep living, living off the—

KEVIN

Oh my goodness. I, I got a call just the other day. It's like, hey, we, we have a new program that can forgive the debt on your school loans. I'm like, I don't have school loans. Stop calling me.

CRAIG

You want to reimburse me? That'd be great.

KEVIN

Right. I got plenty of money that I've spent. If you want to give them some of that back, fine. But as for now, you're calling the wrong person.

CRAIG

I got some old textbooks. You want to buy those? That's right.

KEVIN

Oh goodness. Uh, yeah, well, so, um, I, I think it's going to be interesting to see, uh, which of these decide to, uh, to come true. I, I actually hope that they all do because they— all of this is positive.

CRAIG

Yeah, it's a very optimistic prediction list.

KEVIN

Yeah.

CRAIG

Um, which I'm cool with, um, as, as long as it's legit.

KEVIN

Yeah. And, you know, it's hard to know. I mean, it so many things could happen. We, we have no idea what's gonna wind up being real over the next, you know, year as far as COVID goes, or who knows, something else might pop up. But yeah, um, at the end of the day, you know, the best we can do is the best we can do. And so I— what I would tell you is stay true to a lot of the things that, that we talk about on this, on this podcast a lot, which is Take care of your home. If you're gonna hire a contractor, hire a reputable company. Um, you know, ask some of the questions. Like, if you've, if you've got a service industry person come to your home to do something, go

KEVIN

back and listen to one of our podcasts. I'm sure we've already got one on it. If we don't, let us know. We'd love to, you know, figure out, you know, what those other industries would be that we need to hit.

CRAIG

Yeah.

KEVIN

Um, but take care of your home and, um, you know, don't let it go to waste, man.

CRAIG

It's like a valuable lump of coal that could be hard-pressed into that beautiful diamond one day.

KEVIN

Yeah. That's exactly what I was thinking. I don't know how you knew what I was thinking in my head. What have we missed, man?

CRAIG

That's it. That's the whole report. If you guys, again, if you want to, we'll link up the whole research article that the Texas Real Estate Research Center put together. It's their 2021 mid-year report on outlook. So interesting stuff from these guys. We're going to be continuing to watch some of these trends coming down the line over the next year and seeing what happens. And we're going to continue to talk to real estate professionals and lending professionals and people who have their finger on the pulse of what's going on in the housing market to keep you guys up to date. So in that spirit, smash the like button, smash the subscribe button, follow the podcast, subscribe to the podcast, do all the things, hit the like button, the love button, all the, you know, whatever, who cares? Hit a

CRAIG

button. Yeah.

KEVIN

And leave us a rating. Yeah. Thanks for being with us. Uh, it's been good. Hard to say. Yeah, it's been a good deal. So anyway, we're here each and every Tuesday. Until next time, we'll see you later. See ya.

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